- Final Meeting
AMAZALERT examined how global and regional climate and land-use changes will impact Amazonian forests, agriculture, waters, and people; and how these impacts feed back onto climate.
“The AMAZALERT project has received funding from the European Union’s Seventh Framework Programme for research, technological development and demonstration under grant agreement no 282664, and was co-funded by many national agencies an institutes.”
Amazon land-use scenarios
AMAZALERT produced updated qualitative and quantitative land use scenarios for the Brazilian Amazon, capturing the current contrasting trends for the region. Reflecting stakeholder views, scenarios range from having 80% of the original forest preserved, and a large regeneration process, to having 50% deforested by 2100.
Amazon forest services
Both stakeholder consultations and AMAZALERT modelling confirm that Amazon forests are of crucial importance for a broad set of services such as safeguarding regional water recycling and carbon storage.
Impacts of climate change and deforestation
AMAZALERT models show that if deforestation is kept low, it seems unlikely that climate change alone will cause dramatic losses by 2100 in the remaining forest.
Unknowns, new evidence and uncertainties
Uncertainties remain regarding the sensitivity of Amazon forests to climate change, particularly related to CO2 fertilisation, fire dynamics, incidence of drought, as well as to the trajectory of socio-economic development.
Read further in the AMAZALERT Final project summary for policy makers